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Key Events for the Month of November 2021:
• Nifty (-3.9%) suffered the biggest 1m fall of 2021 in November due to several factors ranging from a global risk-off driven by accelerated taper
worries / Omicron concerns to disappointing listing of India’s largest IPO.
• India’s GDP grew by 8.4% in Q2FY22, with private consumption (PFCE) and investments (GFCF) up 8.6% y/y and 8.7% y/y respectively.
Services, particularly the contact based industry created the drag on the economy
• Headline CPI print for October came at 4.5%, with upside surprise coming in from core CPI which rose to 6.1%, the first above 6% print in
four months. Food & Beverages CPI inflation also seemed to have bottomed out
• Centre’s fiscal deficit stood at 36.3% for April-October period. The deficit stood at 6.4% of GDP during 1H vs 6.8% target for full year.
Revenues stood at Rs12.6 trillion with tax collections at 68% of budgeted estimate
• By the last week of November, India had administered over 1.22bn vaccine doses wherein ~55% of the population received the first dose
while ~32% of the population was fully vaccinated
• FII selling continued, to the tune of -$0.8bn in Nov (YTD +$5.5bn), despite healthy participation in IPOs and MSCI rebal inflows while
DII buying ramped up to +$4.1bn (YTD +$8.4bn) driven by both MFs (+$1.8bn) and Insurance
• India’s manufacturing PMI increased the fastest in 10 months in November. Manufacturing activity increased at 57.6, which is a jump from
55.9 in October.
